Snowpack statewide is only at 59% of its April 1 average, based on electronic measurements according to the California Department of Water Resources. Farmers in the Central Valley producing water-intensive crops such as almonds and tomatoes are already facing some difficult choices. “It’s really serious, particularly in the Central Valley.”
How California farmers view climate change action and adaptation. How
carbon pricing and border adjustments will affect farm economics in
California. Growing use of electric tractors, trucks, and solar power on
California farms.
Sumner presented data and projections for the long term future of California Agriculture to seed industry professionals at the UC Davis Seed Central Oniline Event on December 10.
The threat of heat illness remains a concern in California agriculture. This video emphasizes that farm workers and farm operators share benefit from measures to mitigate high temperatures. At about 1 min 30 sec. Sumner outlines the economic incentives benefits to farm of reducing the chance of worker heat illness.
The threat of heat illness remains a concern in California agriculture. This video emphasizes that farm workers and farm operators share benefit from measures to mitigate high temperatures. At about 1 min 30 sec. Sumner outlines the economic incentives benefits to farm of reducing the chance of worker heat illness.
Despite the ad Tyson Foods released over the weekend, saying the food supply chain in America is breaking, UC Davis Professor Daniel Sumner said we could expect to see some higher prices, but he doesn’t expect to see shelves being wiped out anytime soon.
“If you want to have some very specialized meat product, you may find that in short supply in your local market on the day you’re shopping, if you went back the next day, it may be there, but I don’t think anybody has to worry about the supply chain in America, we’re in pretty good shape,” Sumner said.
And he said the only way we will see a shortage is if people panic buy, just like they did with toilet paper.
“As we’ve learned in the past month or two, you could certainly create a shortage in the sense that consumers can altogether if we all ran out and decided to stock up every freezer space that we have with steaks and pork chops,” Summer said.
The California State Board of Food and Agriculture will hear a presentation from the UC Agricultural Issues Center on California’s Agricultural Future and have updates on CDFA’s CalCannabis and Farmer Equity programs at its upcoming meeting on Tuesday, November 5, 2019. The Board will also hear from the U.S. Farmers and Ranchers Alliance. The meeting will be held from 10:00 a.m. to 2:30 p.m. at the California Department of Food and Agriculture, 1220 N Street – Main Auditorium, Sacramento, CA 95814.
About 18 percent of U.S. milk comes from California. California also represents about 12 percent of dairy consumers, including many who buy organic milk. Organic milk production and marketing in California exemplifies the complexity of the outlook for this segment of the dairy industry nationally.
D.A. Sumner, D.R. Messner, and P. Valdes-Donoso (2019). Organic Dairy: Economic Opportunities and Challenges With a Focus on California. Organic Farmer, 3(2): 10-14.
Sumner followed remarks of Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, and was joined bu UC Davis Economics professor Katheryn Russ, who focused on macroeconomic impacts.
California agriculture has faced particular challenges from the trade turmoil over the past two and a half years. Open access and stable relationships are important because California agriculture relies heavily on exports. About 25% of what we grow in California exported. The ratio is much higher for some products such as tree nuts. Moreover, imports on which new tariffs have been placed, whether steel and aluminum or other goods, are used as imports on farms and food processing and higher costs, such as for canners, translate directly into lower prices for processing tomatoes and other fruits and vegetables and for other farm raw materials.
Some of this turmoil has been caused by US tariffs and
international responses to US tariffs. However, it is important to realize that
concerns have been caused as well by responses to threats and counter threats
that cause market responses and instability even if the threatened actions do
not materialize. For example, when the threat that NAFTA might be revoked was
first raised by the new administration, buyers in Mexico and Canada of
California dairy and other products began considering diversifying their import
sources of supply in case imports from the United States might be disrupted.
The Landscape of California Farm Exports
The UC Agricultural Issues Center (AIC)
produces data on exports of farm products from California. Those data document
export value of more than $20 billion in recent years. The most recent full
year of data is 2017. The three charts on the next page provide basic facts.
California farm exports span a large range of products led by almonds, dairy
products, pistachios, wine and walnuts. California farm exports are shipped to
dozens of significant destinations led by the EU and Canada, with China/Hong
Kong now well ahead of Japan. Important industries differ on their export
reliance. The tree nuts and rice all have export value more than 50% of farm
value of production. For dairy, processing tomatoes, grapes (wine, raisins and
table grapes) and oranges, exports are in the 20% to 30% range. Produce items,
such as strawberries, and including the other fresh fruits and vegetables, have
smaller export shares and export mostly to Canada.
As is evident from these charts,
many California agricultural products are vulnerable to export turmoil. This is
especially true for products with large export shares and those that tend to go
to markets have face new impediments or are likely face new trade impediments.
Such concerns are broader than just exports to China. For example, just last
week, after concerns about termination of NAFTA had largely faded, the President
renewed treats of tariffs on imports from Mexico, which would invite
retaliation. Mexico is a major buyer of California milk powder and other
products. Again, buyers in Mexico are stimulated to source their dairy imports
from New Zealand or other places, even if they have highly-valued suppliers in
California.
Impacts of New Tariffs and Trade Impediments
Last summer and fall our group at AIC, prepared some
calculations of potential losses to some California commodities based on estimates
of lower prices that would be caused by export disruption in markets that had
implemented tariff and other trade restrictions in response to US tariffs. These
trade disruptions has been broader than China and include important
destinations such as Turkey, India and Mexico. We have monitored events that
have played out over the course of the marketing year in subsequent months.
Several basic facts and notions are needed to interpret the
impact on farm commodities. First, much of what we export from California is
commodities from trees and vines that continue to produce even if markets are
in turmoil. A farmer cannot layoff an almond tree and turn off a milk cow when
market prices decline. Second, it is complicated to rearrange export
destinations and that means exporters face lower prices when some markets are
removed from effective demand. These two points are well illustrated by the
walnut trade situation. Exports to markets for which new import barriers are in
place have fallen substantially. As a result, export prices were about 60%
higher in 2017/18 than they have been this year (see the chart on the next
page).
Different commodities have been affected differently.
California hay exports to China have fallen from about 30% of the total export to
about 20% for the year from April 1 to March 31, with average monthly export
quantities well below the pace of 2016 through early 2018. California wine exports this year are also well
below recent years by both volume and value.
Finally, let me use the case of pistachios to illustrate
some complexity in the interpretation of agricultural trade data. In the fall
of 2018, California had a large pistachio crop with more bearing acreage and
good yields. With new tariffs and trade impediments for a crop that relies on
exports, and especially exports to China (mostly via Hong Kong and Vietnam), we
anticipated low pistachio prices. What was not in those calculations was the
subsequent information that Iran, the only other significant exporter, had by
far its smallest pistachio crop in many years. Iranian exports have dropped to
about zero for this marketing year. The result has been that pistachio prices
have been relatively stable.
However, stable prices does not mean that the California
pistachio industry has not suffered a loss from trade disruption. In fact, the
2018-19 marketing year would have been far better, but for the government-caused
trade disruption. The industry would have been able to recover from the low
yields of recent crops and build reserves by capitalizing on the low Iranian exports.
Agricultural production and price variability means farm industries must make
the most of every good opportunity. The trade turmoil has lowered the revenue
of the pistachio industry relative to what it would have otherwise been able to
achieve.
The bottom line is that across
California agriculture farm industries face higher cost inputs and diminished
export demand for their products and prices lower than would have prevailed.
The marketing year still have many months to go, so we do not have final
estimates yet, but much damage has already been done.
Walnut Export Unit Values for Three Marketing Years
Current Situation and Final Remarks
Many had hoped that the trade turmoil just summarized would
be history by now. But, problems have continued and by some measures have gotten
worse. The recent announcement of new U.S. tariffs on Mexican imports into the
United States reignited concerns about that crucial market.
The USDA has announced assistance for farm industries that
have documented losses and many California industries are in line to receive
some benefits. For the industries with losses something is better than nothing,
but all the industries from whom I have heard say clearly they prefer trade to
aid. Government assistance is no substitute for lost trade opportunities and the
loss of their reputations as reliable suppliers.
The basic principle is that prosperity for agriculture is
best stimulated by the opportunity to compete for markets with as few barriers
and as little disruption as possible. Agricultural in California is innovative
and resilient. It can and will adjust to the economic situation, but there are
plenty of other issues and adapting to this trade turmoil adds an unnecessary
burden.
The United States has legitimate complaints about China’s policies. But, governments can be most effective by using dispute settle processes in now well-established institutions (such as NAFTA and the WTO) that provide frameworks for stability. The United States has had much success in the WTO as in two recent agricultural cases brought against China. The WTO would be a natural forum for the U.S. and its many potential allies to pursue their claims against China.
Impact of the U.S. Trade Dispute with China on California’s Economy
The
Assembly Select Committee on International and Regional Agreements and the
Standing Committees on Agriculture and on Jobs and Economic Development are
convening a joint informational hearing from 1:30 to 4:00 p.m. on June 4, 2019,
to provide insights the impact of the U.S. trade dispute with the People’s
Republic of China on California and key economic sectors in the state.
I.Welcome, Introductions, and Opening
Statements –
Assemblymember Levine, Chair (International and Regional Agreements)
Assemblymember Eggman, Chair (Agriculture)
Assemblymember Cervantes Chair (Jobs and Economic Development)
